The Houston Astros were inevitable.
For nearly a decade, the team was the most consistently great franchise in Major League Baseball. The approach of building the team through the draft and its farm system, while losing 100-plus games a year, finally paid off in 2015, with winning a Wildcard series.
That was just the set-up pitch for the dynasty that would soon be delivered, as starting in 2017 Houston would reach the first of seven consecutive American League Championship Series, appear in four fall classics, and win the World Series twice. Not even a global pandemic or a sign-stealing scandal that made them MLB’s most hated team, would slow them down.
The Astros were inevitable.
Not even roster changes and front office shake ups derailed the team. Every offseason the front office allowed another All-Star and fan favorite to walk away in free agency.
Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, and Gerrit Cole all departed in 2019, George Springer in 2021, Carlos Correa in 2022, and Justin Verlander in 2023. Yet, the team kept finding prospects (Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena, and Hunter Brown to name a few) to call up to the big leagues and kept making deep postseason runs.
The Astros were inevitable.
During that stretch, the Astros also fired widely popular skipper A.J. Hinch and general manager Jeff Luhnow due to the sign-stealing scandal. Dusty Baker was brought out of retirement to guide the team out of the scandal. The team also went through two different general managers while Baker was skipper as owner Jim Crane parted ways with James Click after the 2022 title season, and replaced him with Dana Brown.
Yet, the team advanced to four straight ALCS, making two World Series appearances and winning the title again in 2022.
The Astros were inevitable until Wednesday evening as the scrappy Detroit Tigers picked up a short two-game series sweep at Minute Maid Park — led by the same skipper who started Houston’s dynasty — Hinch.
The only thing more inevitable than what the Astros were is that baseball dynasties always end, and usually do so unexpectedly.
It happened to Oakland Athletics in the mid-1970s because of a cheap owner who let free agents leave and a run of five straight ALCS and three straight World Series wins was halted. A little later in that decade, the Cincinnati Reds saw its run of four World Series appearances in six years end due to the rising age and declining skills of the core of the famed “Big Red Machine.”
Even the Yankees, and the billions of dollars in the vault, saw their historic run in the late 1990s through the early 2000s end. In nine years, the Bronx Bombers appeared in seven ALCS, and six World Series and won four titles. But after blowing a historic 3-0 series lead to their rival Boston Red Sox in 2004, the team didn’t reach another ALCS for five years.
Even with that historical data, no one could have predicted that the Astros would be ousted by a team that was a seller at the trade deadline, was 55-63 on August 10th, and had a 0.2 percent chance of making the postseason.
Not only did the stunning loss to the Tigers snap the ALCS streak, but it was also the first time in 10 postseasons that the Astros had not won at least one round. The last time Houston made the postseason and didn’t advance out of the first round was 2001 when the team still played in the National League.
As surprising as the exit may have been, if one paid attention to the team’s season it would be expected.
The entire season was a brutal grind that was filled with a slew of devastating injuries, but the team showed resilience as it became the first team in MLB history to start 7-19 and make the postseason.
The rotation lost starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Christian Javier to Tommy John surgery, Lance McCullers Jr. never came back from an injury suffered in 2022, and JP France was shelved due to season-ending shoulder surgery.
Three-time Cy Young Award winner Verlander was never himself as injury limited him to 17 games, looked like a shell of himself after coming off the injured list, and was left off the Wildcard Series roster.
Ryan Pressly moving from closer to set-up man never worked, either, as he looked uncomfortable, which reared its ugly head in Wednesday’s playoff loss as he blew a save chance for the first time in 15 playoff opportunities.
Kyle Tucker — once an MVP candidate — was sidelined with a deep bone bruise and barely got back in time for the postseason. For the second straight postseason, Tucker looked lost at the plate as he now has six hits in his last 46 postseason at-bats.
But the Astros can simply reload, right? Possibly.
The team has a good core returning in Jose Altuve, Alvarez, Pena, and Yainer Diaz. Framber Valdez, Spencer Arrighetti, and Brown will anchor a rotation that will have veteran pitchers coming off surgery joining them. Josh Hader — who despite Thursday’s outing — was really good this season as the team’s closer. Pedro León could also very well be the next great Latin prospect for the Astros.
But the team has some serious question marks.
According to Spotrac, the Astros have $115 million committed to seven returning players. Valdez and Tucker are entering arbitration seasons and trying to get long-term deals done will be tricky. Trade deadline acquisition and free agent Yusei Kikuchi is likely gone despite the Astros winning his first nine starts with the team.
This means all the prospects that were given up to get Kikuchi and JV the prior year, were used for short-term rentals. No doubt this makes fans worry that are there enough prospects left to replace all the veterans who could leave. The Astros’ recent history suggests that there is plenty to do so.
Throw in the team will still be paying $31 million to José Abreu and Rafael Montero to not play for the team, the result of massive contract blunders made by Crane when he didn’t have a general manager in 2023.
Then there is the Alex Bregman contract situation. The two sides could not get a long-term deal done prior to the 2024 season. The former LSU star has been a foundational piece of this run but will he return? Despite the pleas of Altuve and fans, Bregman will likely suit up for someone else.
Under Crane, the Astros have never handed out a contract worth more than $151 million. Reports are that Bregman — who is represented by the feared super agent Scott Boras — wants at least $200 million.
Does this mean this is the end of the Astros? Not necessarily but Crane will be forced to do some things he might not like. Is he going to start not implementing a salary cap in a league that doesn’t have one? Probably not but even though he may not overspend like the Yankees did in the 2000s, he could look to them for inspiration to still field a World Series team.
The Yankees’ core — Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera — that won all those titles were declining by 2009 when they won their final World Series. But the team augmented their core with Alex Rodriquez and C.C. Sabathia, Robinson Cano, and Hideki Matsui.
I know looking to the Yankees for inspiration makes Astro fans nauseated but imagine how it is going to feel to see Bregman possibly play for them in 2025.
Can the Astros pivot as well as the Yankees did 15 years ago? Yes. Will they do it? That is an uncertainty that makes the Astros no longer inevitable.
Raymond Partsch III is the co-host of “RP3 & Meche” which is broadcast weekdays (11-1) on ESPN 103.7 Lafayette and 104.1 Lake Charles — Southwest Louisiana’s Sports Station.
